We wanted to take the opportunity this week to outline our
trading thesis for 2016. We had a short bias reading on the models heading into
the year end of 2015 but we didn’t make any trades as not to disrupt the gains
accumulated in 2015 if we were wrong. Personally I knew I’d be away from my
desk and the lack of trading volume enticed me to close all my positions in the
last week of December. That said we wanted to build a short bias in the
portfolio and on Monday (January 4), once the European markets closed and the
US markets rebounded, we accumulated our short positions. With such a rapid
decline it was a bit challenging to find the levels at which to execute as
support was being broken everywhere. We chose the 2020 level in the S&P
500. This is the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level from the August low on the
daily and we seemed to be hovering at that point. Over the next three trading
days the market sold off further breaching 1960 to the downside. Staying with
the Fibonacci figures, this represented 61.8% retracement. We decided to cover
near these levels. Certainly didn’t get in at the bottom and out at the top of
the trade but are pleased nonetheless.
Short-Term Thesis
With all the bearish action to start 2016 we were a bit
perplexed as to the lack of panic that was showing up in several indicators.
After a few days of what looked to be aggressive selling we didn’t get very
many solid buy signals that have worked well for us in the past. What we really
look for is an inverted VIX, which we got at 1.03 but nowhere near the August
low level of 1.30. Also the 5 day ROC on the VIX didn’t break 50%, a level that
we use to signify sudden panic and a buy signal. We look for 1.4 on the
Put/Call ratio as a buy signal as well and that never materialized. So in all,
only one of the three short-term indicators that we look at registered a buy.
In fact the readings were more akin to the late September
early October sell-off. At that time the market had sold off and we had a short
bias but we did not cover our shorts because of the lack of panic at that time
and the S&P 500 went on to rally close to 8% that month. We overstayed our
welcome and took a loss for the month. So this time around we decided to cover
the shorts for profits before the market decided to take them away from us.
After a failed attempt to rally on Friday the market
continued lower. We sheepishly took a few long positions around the close
because we were getting other potential short-term buy indications. Looking at
the chart below, we were getting a reading from the S&P 500 Bollinger Bands
that was below negative two standard deviations for three consecutive days. When
analyzing the BB, we took the data back to 1980. When the BB was below negative
two standard deviations from the mean the S&P 500 went higher in the next
five trading days 58.8% of the time for an average return of 0.6%. But the BB
was below negative two standard deviations for three consecutive days. In cases where the BB is below negative two
standard deviations for three or more consecutive days the S&P 500 went higher in
the next five trading days 73.0% of the time with an average return of
1.2%.
The percent of companies in the S&P 500 trading above
their 50DMA is 12.8%. This is also less than negative two standard deviations
from the mean. When this indicator alone is below negative two standard
deviations the S&P 500 is higher in the next five trading days 57.5% of the
time with an average return of 0.5%. When
combining the S&P 500 percent above the 50DMA and three or more consecutive days of BB
below negative two standard deviations (what we have currently), the
S&P 500 went higher in the next five trading days 75% of the time for an
average return of 4.0%.
Also on the daily S&P 500 chart the percent of new highs
and new lows hit -15.4. This is not as severe as the -35 reading we received at
the August lows but it is still below negative two standard deviations. When
this occurs the S&P 500 is higher in the next five trading days 83.3% of
the time for an average gain of 3.4%. This data series only goes back to 2010
so we have to be suspect of the results as they haven’t been battle tested
through tough market conditions. Nevertheless it provided useful insight.
Intermediate Term
Thesis
The S&P 500 weekly chart also stopped us from getting
more aggressive on the long bias. On the chart below the weekly MACD and MACD
Histogram doesn’t appear to be a pattern to go long into. That said, the
various weekly RSI and stochastic oscillators are in oversold conditions. On a
weekly basis, if the S&P 500 closes below its August weekly close (around
1921) we could be looking at possible bullish divergences for the RSI (14) and
the MACD. There may be some further downside but on a weekly basis we think it’s
limited given the levels of support and the oversold nature of the various
indicators such as percent above 50DMA and 200DMA as well as percent new
high/low. If we can get one more “wash-out” sell-off, then we think we could
see a rally into the end of the quarter.
Another variable to
watch is the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. This past week 22.2% of those
surveyed said they were bullish on the market, well below the average of 38.8%.
Against that backdrop, 38.3% said they were bearish which is above the average
figure of 30.5%. The Bull/Bear ratio is 0.58 which is below the 1.5 average and
is in fact greater than negative one standard deviation from its historical
mean. This figure does little to project
the following five days of trading but it does provide valuable stats for the
next three months of trading. When the
Bull/Bear ratio goes below negative one standard deviation from its mean, the
S&P 500 is up 76.7% of the time in the following three months with an
average return of 4.1%.
Long-Term Thesis
Assuming we get a rally at some point in the first quarter
of the year based on the weekly data and AAII Survey, it’s hard to be bullish
over the long-term. The monthly MACD (20, 35, 10) has turned negative, just as
it did before the prior two bear markets. The monthly RSI (15) broke below 50, just
as it did at the start of the last two bear markets and the slope of the 20MMA
is about to go negative, just as it did at the start of the last two bear
markets. These are all ominous signs that we are watching closely.
We believe that the rally in the first quarter will be short
lived as the S&P 500 will rise to retest resistance at the 20MMA (as it did
prior to the previous two bear markets) and the RSI (15) will attempt to get
back above 50 but fail (as it did prior to the last two bear markets).
Once (if) these
things happen the S&P 500 can conceivably drop to 1575 to 1600 which is the
peak of the last two bull markets and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows
in early 2009. A 20% to 30% drop in the S&P 500 this year doesn’t seem
all that far-fetched given the deterioration that we are seeing in the global
economy, corporate earnings, interest rates and high yield trends. Please read Four
Red Flags to Watch for in 2016 for our thoughts on macro trends.
Bottom Line:
Short-Term (next five
trading days): We are trading for a brief relief rally from last week. We think
it may prove short lived as the VIX data and weekly charts aren’t really
confirming a rally (I could be wrong as I was in October). Should we get a relief rally, we'll keep the stops tight
and will most likely be in 100% cash quickly waiting for a blood in
the streets selloff scenario. We will be more aggressive long at that time. If we don't get any type of relief rally but additional downside we will add to our long position.
Intermediate Term:
Weekly charts and AAII Survey may be indicating a rally to close out 1Q16, once
this short-term weakness subsides. The S&P 500 could rally back up to its
20MMA currently 2027 and fail to retake it to the upside.
Long-Term: Once the
20MMA test fails, second and third quarter of the year will see a significant
sell-off before finding strength in the final quarter of the year. The S&P
500 could drop 20% to 30% this year.
This of course is
subject to change as new information arrives but it seems the most probable
given the data we are currently reviewing.
Thanks for reading.
Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA
Email: joe@squaredconcept.com
Twitter: @jskalinowski
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