Sunday, December 7, 2014

Monday, December 1, 2014

Articles of Interest


Market Analysis

On the market rally






On corporate profits


Commodities

On falling oil prices and the effect on the high yield market


On oil as an investment








On oil and the economy




On PGM price fixing


On PGM as an investment


On the dollar


On the Swiss gold referendum


Politics & Policy

On Regulation



My favorite WTF article

On brining pigs and small horses on commercial flights???

 
Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA

Thursday, November 27, 2014

The Price for Oil Will Rebound


While those of us in this country are enjoying our Thanksgiving festivities today, OPEC will be meeting in Austria to discuss oil production. Given the abysmal collapse in oil prices in the second half of this year, the meeting has taken on greater importance with profound economic and industry implications. The price of Brent crude oil is down more than 20% from its summer highs of $105 per barrel and WTI hasn’t fared much better. Many experts are expecting a modest reduction from OPEC as a result of today’s meeting but nothing is certain. Saudi Arabia has been a supporter of lower oil prices and may not be as accommodating some sources say. As a possible ploy to wound Russia, ISIS and other OPEC members both politically and economically, Saudi Arabia may entertain weakened oil prices for some period of time.

Additionally, there are many who speculate the true motive behind this “squeeze play” is to put a dent in the U.S. shale revolution that has taken hold, increasing U.S. oil output by more than 40% in the past eight years. While the growth in output is impressive, one needs to recognize that production costs in the U.S. can be three to four times that of Middle Eastern production. Thus greater survival odds from a price war lie heavily in Saudi Arabia’s favor.
http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-saudi-arabia-wont-win-this-oil-standoff-2014-11
 
Market experts place a $70 per barrel price target on Brent crude as a breakeven point for the U.S. shale producers but that number has a fairly wide range, from $50 to $120 depending on the efficiency of the well.
http://www.businessinsider.com/shale-basin-breakeven-prices-2014-10
 
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Saudi exports to the U.S. have dropped by almost 30% since the summer from 1.25 million barrels per day to below 900,000 barrels in August. They have been producing 9.6 million barrels per day accounting for roughly 31% of OPEC’s production as other OPEC members gripe about the pricing strategy the Saudis have embraced. Many experts speculate that OPEC would need to announce a 1 million barrel per day reduction to stop the free-fall.
http://www.businessinsider.com/opec-november-27-meeting-preview-2014-11
The supply issues are magnified by current global demand as Europe and China struggle economically. In the case of Europe, they are working towards avoiding a recession throughout the region while China is struggling to maintain its growth profile of the past several years. China is the number one consumer of oil and is facing a slowdown that threatens to bring GDP growth below its targeted 7%. Experts point out the economic dynamics at play in China, i.e. record leverage and weakening real estate, thus a slowdown in that region will impact the global economy and the price of oil exponentially.
Taken from MarketWatch (via Zero Hedge), “As to how low the oil prices can go, that depends on how much China will slow down as the number-one consumer of oil. China’s financial system is operating on record leverage at the moment. Record leverage in the financial system and a sharply weakening real-estate market suggest that their economic slowdown has the potential to carry far below Beijing’s GDP growth target of 7%.
Yes, China has had three real-estate downturns in the past seven years, but the latest one is coming at a time of debt-driven boom, which means the consequences this time can be quite different. I used to think that China was a classic savings-and-investment economic-growth model, and it was, but that was 10 years ago.
I no longer think that, since GDP growth in the past five years has come from ever-increasing leverage ratios in the banking system. No debt-driven boom is permanent by definition, so the decline in the Chinese real-estate market has the potential to create a domino effect there in 2015. If China does decelerate well below 7% in 2015, an oil price target in the $30 to $40 range is completely realistic.”
Talk about a worst case scenario. Another item that should be highlighted is the current state of the high yield market. The Alliance Bernstein blog has done a fantastic job covering this area. They postulate (via Business Insider), “Energy-sector high-yield bonds have been at the epicenter of recent volatility in the global high-yield market. Between late August and mid-November, the US high-yield energy sector is down 6.2%, compared to a 1.7% decline for the broader US high-yield corporate-bond market. Since 2000, energy companies have invested some $1.5 trillion into operations—mostly exploration and production—and they’ve taken on a hefty share of debt to do it. Debt issued by energy firms today comprises more than 15% of the Barclays US High Yield Index, compared to less than 5% a decade ago (Display). But not every segment of the energy industry stands to benefit. Oil prices are now below $80 a barrel—in part a result of the supply glut caused by the North American production boom. Small companies that have levered up to fund exploration and production will see their margins squeezed—with bankruptcy a distinct possibility in some cases. As a result, many firms no longer have access to capital markets. But we think investors should think carefully before deciding to snap up their existing debt at a discount.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-problem-with-high-yield-energy-bonds-2014-11
 
As contrarian investors, we are of the opinion that the energy sector is an intriguing place to look for investment purposes. More specifically, companies that will benefit from rising oil prices are what we would like to introduce to the portfolio. The price of oil will not fall into perpetuity. The global supply/demand dynamics assure that. As demand for oil increases annually, production for the black stuff needs to grow exponentially as wells are in a constant state of decline (this is especially the case for North American Shale). Therefore it will take significant capital investment just to keep pace with global demand of 1% per annum. That along with the inherently volatile region that produces so much oil gives us comfort in knowing that the price of oil will reach $100 per barrel in the future. It may take some time, but my instinct tells me not as long as many are expecting.  
Next week we will be providing some opinions on investments that we are contemplating. Until then, we wish all a Happy Thanksgiving.
Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA
Additional Insight
Energy & Oil Prices
On OPEC Meeting
On Oil Prices
On Oil Demand
On Supply Production
On the Economy
On Gas Prices
On High Yield Securities
On Energy Stocks
On Energy Politics
No part of this report may be reproduced in any manner without the expressed written permission of Squared Concept Partners, LLC.  Any information presented in this report is for informational purposes only.  All opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice.  Squared Concept Partners, LLC is an independent asset management and consulting company. These entities may have had in the past or may have in the present or future long or short positions, or own options on the companies discussed.  In some cases, these positions may have been established prior to the writing of the particular report.  The above information should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell the securities discussed herein.  The publisher of this report cannot verify the accuracy of this information.  The owners of Squared Concept Partners, LLC and its affiliated companies may also be conducting trades based on the firm’s research ideas.  They also may hold positions contrary to the ideas presented in the research as market conditions may warrant. 

Sunday, November 23, 2014

PGM Update


It appears the PGM market has caught a bid this week as all three metals; platinum, palladium and rhodium finished the week strong.





Expected global auto sales figures provided by Scotiabank have undoubtedly placed a positive note for the PGM space. Their analysis is predicting total worldwide auto sales to reach 72.12 million vehicles this year, an increase of 5% over last year. Strong sales figures in the U.S. are a driver of the gain but they also point out that auto sales in China increased 8.4% for the first half of the year and Canada is expected to break an all-time record this year with 2 million cars sold. Given the supply and demand dynamics that we have written about in the past, Scotiabank anticipates upside for the PGM space looking forward with a greater emphasis on palladium.

Officials from Russia and South Africa met recently to discuss price stability in the market. These two nations produce a large supply of the world’s PGM product with close to 70% of platinum coming from South Africa and nearly 40% of the world’s palladium supply stemming from Russia. The outcome of the talks have resulted in continued conferences in the first half of next year, “to collaborate on technology development and jointly exploring new applications for the metal” according to Phuti Mabelebele, a spokeswoman for South Africa’s mines ministry.

What I find exceptionally interesting is the formation of the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). This is a consortium of the six largest platinum producers worldwide with the explicit focus on assisting, “high net worth and retail investors gain a better understanding of the platinum investment opportunity through the provision of independent data, information and insight.”

 I have two roles when approaching the PGM space. My primary role is running the hedge book for recyclers of PGM, notably AAA Catalytic Recycling Inc., tracking the ounces and appropriate pricing in the spent catalytic converter space to maintain margins. This role demands a shorter term focus on the day to day fluctuations in an attempt to shelter the recycling facility from as much commodity risk as possible.

That said, the investor in me looks at the PGM space and more specifically platinum prices and realizes this is a major contrarian opportunity that will pay off handsomely over the next several years. It is for this reason that I expect to be launching a fund specifically designed to buy and carry the physical metals extracted from the recycling space at the start of next year. This investor believes the WPIC initiative is well timed and will be extremely beneficial as we head into 2015.    

Suggested Reading





 




Slightly off the beaten path

While I’m not following gold as much as the PGM group, there has been interesting developments within the space that are worth mentioning and can have an impact on gold prices. On November 30, the Swiss will be heading to the polls to vote on the Swiss gold referendum. Should the referendum pass, it will require the Swiss National Bank to boost their gold holdings to 20% of all assets, up from 7.7% currently. They will repatriate 30% of their gold holdings abroad and will have restrictions on the sale of the gold held in reserve. One would imagine this would have a positive effect on gold prices and has certainly added a bout of volatility to the yellow stuff.

Zero Hedge has done a great job breaking down the story as it unfolds.


Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA




No part of this report may be reproduced in any manner without the expressed written permission of Squared Concept Partners, LLC.  Any information presented in this report is for informational purposes only.  All opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice.  Squared Concept Partners, LLC is an independent asset management and consulting company. These entities may have had in the past or may have in the present or future long or short positions, or own options on the companies discussed.  In some cases, these positions may have been established prior to the writing of the particular report.  The above information should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell the securities discussed herein.  The publisher of this report cannot verify the accuracy of this information.  The owners of Squared Concept Partners, LLC and its affiliated companies may also be conducting trades based on the firm’s research ideas.  They also may hold positions contrary to the ideas presented in the research as market conditions may warrant. 


Weekend Reading


Market Analysis
















Monetary Policy



The Economy






Politics & Policy







 
Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Power Dinner


My good friend Joseph called me this morning.  He is a classic type A personality that can get your juices flowing in the morning better than a shot of double espresso. He informed me that he was having dinner with a few “influential” members of Congress tonight.

I wasn’t invited.

That said, he did offer up the opportunity for me to compile a list of talking points for him to discuss over dinner. Here are a few suggestions/concerns that come to mind when immersed in the wonderful game of Washington politics.

GOP Control of Congress – In a sweeping referendum against the policies of the Obama administration, the GOP took control of congress, winning the Senate and increasing their control of the House for the first time in eight years. There was an overriding theme that it was a message from voters against a “do-nothing” Congress to reach across the aisle and get something done. This constituent agrees that there should be productive bills presented and voted on for the merits contained within the legislation and how the benefits of that bill will better the country. The days of spiteful politics should end. That said we should refrain from legislating for the sake of legislating. Specific bills that are voted down are voted that way for a reason. If a bill is presented that is too one-sided or will not produce its’ intended purpose of bettering the country, then I’m in support of gridlock.

Clarity of Message – Now that the GOP controls Congress one certainly hopes that they will have a clear and focused agenda. We don’t want a rehash of the Contract with America – but something that we the constituency can look forward to, track and judge - a concise and organized Congressional roadmap. 

Tax Reform – Our corporations pay the highest tax rate in the industrialized world. Our tax rate of 35% is uncompetitive and promotes creative tax accounting and inversion. Through the use of loopholes, large corporations with large legal and accounting departments have the ability to bring their effective tax rates as low as 13%. Congress should lower the corporate tax rate. It would be constructive reform with bipartisan roots. The economic benefits would satisfy the right and equal opportunity for corporations among varying sizes will satisfy the left. Corporations will stay in this country and tax receipts may improve.        

Repatriation Tax Holiday – U.S. multinational firms are storing over $2 trillion in offshore profits because bringing those funds back to this country will subject those assets to a 35% repatriation tax. In 2004 Congress offered a repatriation tax holiday that allowed corporations to bring up to $500 million back to this country at an effective tax rate of 5.25%. It has been hotly debated as to the direct benefits those assets actually provided to the economy, many saying the experiment was a failure. This time around we should offer a repatriation tax holiday that will be directly invested for jobs and growth. Using the funds for direct investment into infrastructure is an idea that has been tossed up. This constituent believes the repatriation tax holiday will be stimulative if applied the right way this time around and should enjoy bipartisan support.

Regulation – Small businesses are being strangled with over-regulation and it has a sapping effect on economic growth. This issue is of the utmost importance considering small businesses are the key driver of economic activity and jobs.  This constituent believes in limited government and asks Congress to enact legislation to thoroughly comb through the 15 departments, 69 agencies, 383 sub agencies and the nearly 200,000 pages in the Code of Federal Regulations and trim the waste. A study from the Small Business Administration, a government body, found that regulations in general add $10,585 in costs per employee. Fixing this problem will have a profound effect on economic growth.

Budgetary Concerns – There should be a measured and calculated approach to balancing the budget and bringing the national debt to more reasonable levels. Taking the time to find waste, fraud and abuse among the varying government entities should be something taken seriously. We should avoid another sequestration type of hacking and certainly another fiscal cliff. Taken directly from the Citizens Against Government Waste website, “It is within the context of these looming, significant spending decisions that Citizens Against Government Waste (CAGW) releases Prime Cuts 2013. CAGW has been publishing the document since 1993. This year’s version contains 557 recommendations that would save taxpayers $580.6 billion in the first year and $1.8 trillion over five years.” These types of proposals should be taken seriously.

 As of the time of this writing, the breaking news has been President Obama’s plans on immigration reform through executive order. This just crossed the wire and I am sure this will be a topic discussed as well.

I wish Joseph fine dining and hope he would pass along these thoughts to his dinner companions.

Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA

joe@squaredconcept.com

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Platinum Update

Precious metals had a bit of a difficult week. Platinum lost ground with a range from $1241 down to $1195. Palladium had a range of $805 to $754 and Gold varied $1170 to $1142. Slowing global economic growth, the threat of disinflation, slowing auto sales and the end of quantitative easing in this country has taken its toll on the precious stuff. Not to mention the strength of the dollar versus other key currencies has added further downward pressure to metals across the board.




That said, we have taken the contrarian view and consider the sector, and especially Platinum worthy of consideration as a longer-term investment. Several weeks ago we highlighted the virtues of Pt. We wrote, “Given the tale of doom surrounding platinum, as a contrarian investor one needs to consider the prospect of an investment in the metal. For one, demand for the metal (especially in the automotive arena) exceeds global supply.

Figure one shows total global supply and total global net demand for platinum. These figures are provided by Johnson Matthey as shows a global deficit for the metal in 2012 and 2013. Barclays estimates that there will continue to be a global deficit for 2014 and 2015 to the tune of 1.8 million and 433,000 ounces, respectively. The large deficit for 2014 was largely related to the South African mining strikes that took an estimated 1 million ounces off the market.”

 
 
 
 
 
 
Looking at figure two, the supply / demand scenario should work well for the price of platinum over the long haul.
 
 
The fundamental support from favorable supply-demand dynamics is what is intriguing to us but we are watching Pt prices closely and are building long-term positions. As we continually monitor the price of Pt, one item jumped out. When looking at the daily price chart for Pt, it is possible that we are seeing a major bullish divergence between the price of the metal and its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) profile.
Several weeks ago Pt suffered a major bout of selling pressure but soon after rebound to more reasonable levels. Recently the metal has relinquished to the bears and have resumed its downward trend. Friday’s action saw a bit of strength. If this should turn out to be another bounce at these levels then the run could be quite aggressive. Notice how the price of the metal is making a lower-low while the MACD is registering a higher-low. This technical pattern paves the way for a near-term rally for Platinum. Should this be the case it would confirm that selling pressure is abating.
 
 
 
We are not suggesting near-term trading around the idea. We are longer-term holders but this information is useful for those of us that run a hedge book (we do) and attempt to mitigate near-term price fluctuations as we deal in the physical metal on a daily basis.
Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA
joe@squaredconcept.com
 
 
Suggested Reading
 
No part of this report may be reproduced in any manner without the expressed written permission of Squared Concept Partners, LLC.  Any information presented in this report is for informational purposes only.  All opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice.  Squared Concept Partners, LLC is an independent asset management and consulting company. These entities may have had in the past or may have in the present or future long or short positions, or own options on the companies discussed.  In some cases, these positions may have been established prior to the writing of the particular report.  The above information should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell the securities discussed herein.  The publisher of this report cannot verify the accuracy of this information.  The owners of Squared Concept Partners, LLC and its affiliated companies may also be conducting trades based on the firm’s research ideas.  They also may hold positions contrary to the ideas presented in the research as market conditions may warrant. 

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Investor Sentiment is Off The Charts!


Several weeks ago, I wrote a note explaining why the bottoms that were hit in mid-October were most likely not the lows for the year. I offered several reasons why that I believed that to be the case.

I turned out to be incorrect.

The U.S. equity markets completely shrugged off any and all concerns regarding the end of QE, slowing global economies, geopolitical tensions and Ebola and pushed to new annual highs.

It would appear the bulls remain in charge but what has really raised an eyebrow or two is the amount of “skittishness” there appears to be in the market. In my humble market experience, I can’t recall a time when a correction came and went in such quick measure. I am shocked at how quickly the market pivoted from euphoria – to panic – back to euphoria.

Subjectively speaking, it felt like there was clearly panic in the air. There were so many that felt this was the beginning of the end of the QE empowered rally that started in 2009.

I wanted to take a more objective approach in reviewing this flash correction and started looking at the five day volatility for the volatility index (vix) since his rally began. I simply took the range of the five day high and low for the vix to measure market fear. I found two other instances when the vix swung so wildly. They were August of 2011 and May of 2010.



On August 9, 2011 the vix swung from 23.38 to 48.00 over five days. On May 7, 2010 the vix had a five day range of 20.19 to 40.95. On October 14, 2014 the vix had a range of 15.11 to 24.64.
The prior two excessive volatility periods resulted in a pullback in the bull market but offered an opportunity to build positions as the market remained depressed for a period of weeks and months. This time around, bullish sentiment returned so quickly that the correction barely registered on a longer-term stock chart.
The wild swing in the put-call ratio also confirmed the increased skittishness. The ratio went north of 1.5, the highest level in years as investors sought downside protection for their portfolios. Then just as quickly the ratio dropped to around .75 as if nothing happened. On the surface one can call this a correction but it sure didn’t feel like one.



 
There are other extraordinary facts about this latest correction that has many talking. Taken from the blog The Fat-Pitch, here are more really interesting points.
“This market is well-known for doing the unprecedented. According to SentimentTrader, SPX traded more than 0.5% above its 5-dma for 10 days in a row in the past two weeks. In the prior 75 years, this has only happened twice before, both at bear market lows (1982 and 2002). In other words, a rare rip higher, that has only happened after multi-year bear markets, just occurred after a mild, four week drop. It's incredible and completely unexpected.”
 The folks at Guggenheim Partners point out this divergence in market advances and decliners. “Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average high made on Nov. 6, the New York Stock Exchange Cumulative Advance/Decline Line remains 1.1 percent lower than its peak on Aug. 29. Historically, a persistent divergence between the DJIA and the Advance/Decline Line usually leads to a major correction in equities. Whether or not the Advance/Decline Line can catch up with the increase in equity prices over the next few weeks will determine whether the current rally is sustainable.”
 
More from The Fat Pitch, “Perhaps the most distinguishing characteristic of the current rally is this: SPX has made a series of 12 daily "higher lows" in a row. According to Paststat, there have been only 9 other instances in the past 20 years where SPX has made more than 10 "higher lows" in a row (post). This raises the question of what typically happens next.” It turns out that the S&P 500 has struggled or went lower in 7 of the 9 instances
 I decided to take a look at the AAII Investor Sentiment survey to catch a glimpse of the skittishness that seemed to dominate trading action a few weeks ago.
While parsing through the numbers, I realized just how CRAZY investor sentiment has been over the last few weeks.
Last week, the survey produced 52.7% of respondents saying they are “bullish” towards the market and only 15.1% claimed to be “bearish. These results are at extreme levels.
Looking at the next figure, going back to 1987, there is typically an average spread between bulls and bears of about 8.5 points, in favor of the bulls. As of the latest reading, there exists a 37.6 point spread between the two almost two standard deviations from the norm.

 
Displayed a different way, I take a ratio of bulls-to-bears. There is historically 1.5 bulls to every bear. The reading from last week shows a margin of 3.5 bulls for every bear. This is an enormous misalignment to historic norms and should be considered an outlier.  



 
 

Another item to note has been the rate of change from bearish to bullish. Similar to the extreme moves in the vix and the put-call ratio, the AAII investor Sentiment survey has seen an aggressive increase from the mid-October correction.
During the correction, the bulls-to-bears ratio was around 1.2 and spiked to 3.5 in four weeks. The last time we saw such rapid changes in the survey was late 2005 into early 2006.
While our call from several weeks ago turned out to be erroneous, we are still cautious for the outlook on equities. While it is difficult to tell how effect the post-election euphoria skewed these figures our belief is that this pendulum will swing in the opposite direction at some point.
Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA
Joe@squaredconcept.com
 
 

No part of this report may be reproduced in any manner without the expressed written permission of Squared Concept Partners, LLC.  Any information presented in this report is for informational purposes only.  All opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice.  Squared Concept Partners, LLC is an independent asset management and consulting company. These entities may have had in the past or may have in the present or future long or short positions, or own options on the companies discussed.  In some cases, these positions may have been established prior to the writing of the particular report.  The above information should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell the securities discussed herein.  The publisher of this report cannot verify the accuracy of this information.  The owners of Squared Concept Partners, LLC and its affiliated companies may also be conducting trades based on the firm’s research ideas.  They also may hold positions contrary to the ideas presented in the research as market conditions may warrant.