I’ll keep this brief. On November 22 we posted Stocks,
Gold and Precious Metals...Thanksgiving Strategy in which we said, “By the end of last week we took profits on
our stocks and stock options within our portfolio and replaced them with
general market ETF’s. We bought SPY’s and QQQ’s and added UPRO and TQQQ to
capitalize on what is a traditionally strong week for the stock market
(Thanksgiving week).”
We removed the levered ETF’s from the portfolio after
Thanksgiving and have been largely underweight the S&P 500 (SPY’s) and holding
cash. While the market has been selling off we had a very slight long bias and
maybe lost 1%.
We’re starting to build back into positions this week. We
ultimately think the market has sold the rumor and will buy the news when the
fed raises rates by 25bp this week accompanied by an extremely dovish stance.
This may seem odd that I’m taking a long position given my
last post was about as negative as I could possibly be towards the market. Long
term my bearish sentiment prevails but from now to the end of the year I think
there’s a good possibility of a bounce in the market.
A few reasons I’m stepping in to buy.
The action on the VIX is giving me a higher probability
trade. On Friday the VIX spot and future pricing inverted. When this ratio
exceeds 1.0 it’s usually a time to start looking to buy something. I
additionally watch the rolling five day percent return for the VIX. When that
figure exceeds 50% it’s a buy indication. When both these models confirm one
another I tend to want to increase my long bias in the market.
Around this time last year (12/16/14) I received this same
signal and the S&P 500 went on to rally 6% in seven days not including
Christmas Eve and Christmas day. I received two of these signals in 2015, the
first one on 6/29/15 and the second on 8/25/15. In each case the market went on
to rally 4% and 7% over the next week or so, respectively. We’re stepping in
again and believe the probability is in our favor.
RSI (5) and fast stochastics in the SPX daily chart are
signaling oversold and have turned higher today. The S&P 500 tested the psychologically
significant 2000 level today and bounced higher as it provided support. It
closed above that level with a stronger close on decent volume. We bought a
small amount of UPRO at that level to test the waters.
The daily MACD histogram has fell sharply and now sits
nearly two standard deviations away from its long term mean. Upward movement in
the MACD histogram will be favorable confirmation that we have entered a
successful trade.
There is still a negative divergence between the market cap
weight and the equal weight S&P 500 showing that the largest of companies
still support the overall market. With that said, any positions that we will
introduce into the portfolio will be those largest of large cap leaders.
The percent of S&P 500 companies trading below their
50DMA and 200DMA are two standard deviations away from their long term mean.
This usually signifies a shorter term trading opportunity. Percentage of new
highs versus new lows is also two standard deviations from its long term mean.
This is the first higher probability trade we’ve gotten
since going long on November 15. Read Positioning
for a Year-End Rally.
Bottom Line: While we
have preserved capital in light of the recent market downtrend we are
comfortable with the notion of a near term market rally to close the year. We
will be taking positions this week sparingly and will most likely wait until
after the fed announcement and market action thereafter before getting more
aggressive.
Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA
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